9.4.5

Future Pattern of Power

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The Pattern of Power in the Future

The future balance of power in 2030 and 2050 is uncertain. Most people believe that there are three main outcomes that are likely: continued USA dominance, a bi-polar world or a multi-polar world.

Illustrative background for USA dominates a uni-polar worldIllustrative background for USA dominates a uni-polar world ?? "content

USA dominates a uni-polar world

  • Many people have predicted that the USA's dominance will fade.
  • It is worth remembering, however, that there have been predictions of a threat to America’s dominance before.
  • In the 1980s, economists predicted that Japan would overtake America as the world’s largest economy.
    • Now, however, it is third behind China.
  • The 1997 Asian financial crisis contributed to a Japanese economic stagnation that stopped it rivalling the USA.
Illustrative background for USA and China in a bi-polar worldIllustrative background for USA and China in a bi-polar world ?? "content

USA and China in a bi-polar world

  • China's population of roughly 1.4bn people in 2018, the rise of Chinese TNCs like Tencent and Alibaba and their growing soft power in Africa (resulting from finance and infrastructure) mean that China may rival the USA's hegemony.
  • If there are two superpowers in the world in 10 years' time, it seems that the USA and China are most likely to be those powers.
Illustrative background for USA, China and Russia in a multi-polar worldIllustrative background for USA, China and Russia in a multi-polar world ?? "content

USA, China and Russia in a multi-polar world

  • Russia may come to rival the USA and China by 2050. However, the probability of this seems smaller than the probability that China rivals the USA.
  • The impact of climate change on Russia (and places like Moscow) and other nations may also influence the balance of power.
  • A switch to renewable energy and a low-carbon world could mean that another country rises to become a superpower.

Jump to other topics

1Tectonic Processes & Hazards

2Option 2A: Glaciated Landscapes & Change

3Option 2B: Coastal Landscapes & Change

4Globalisation

5Option 4A: Regenerating Places

6Option 4B: Diverse Places

7The Water Cycle & Water Insecurity (A2 only)

8The Carbon Cycle & Energy Security (A2 only)

9Superpowers (A2 only)

10Option 8A: Health & Human Rights (A2 only)

11Option 8B: Migration & Identity (A2 only)

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