Emerging Powers - China Rivalry

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Emerging Powers - BRICS

A number of emerging countries are increasingly important to global economic and political systems. The main emerging powers are the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

21st century challengers to the USA

The 21st century has seen economic change as the BRICS' emerge as major economies.
Russia is re-emerging as a major economic power after the collapse of the USSR in 1991.
Many people believe that by 2050 the USA will no longer be a uni-polar and we will return to a multi-polar world- as last seen in the imperial era.

Gap vs the USA

It is important to recognise however that each of these emerging nations has a long way to go before they are a genuine challenge to America’s status.
For example, in 2014 the combined GDP of the BRICS was $16.4 trillion. This combined total is still about 8% less than that of the USA.
The population of the USA in 2016 was 323 million. The BRICs had a combined population of 3.2 billion.

Global environmental governance

As these emerging powers grow in size economically, their carbon emissions and contributions towards climate change are increasing too.
At the last UN Climate Change Conference in Paris 2015, it was recognised that the BRICS nations would have to play their part in reducing carbon emissions if global targets were to be hit.
The BRICS' are increasingly important for global environmental governance.

Global carbon emissions

Data from Greenpeace earlier this year showed that despite a global agreement to reduce carbon emissions, China’s carbon emissions are on track to rise at their fastest pace in more than 7 years during 2018.
China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and their carbon emissions rose by 4% in the first part of this year.
- This shows that unless the BRICS nations, and particularly China, play their part in global environmental governance, targets are unlikely to be met.

In recent decades, China’s rapid economic growth has begun to challenge America’s power and influence. China is seeking to expand its own global influence through a number of different strategies- including its investment in Africa.

China's economic growth

Between 2012 and 2017, China’s economic growth lifted 68.53 million people out of poverty. That’s a drop in the poverty rate from 10.2% to 3.4% in 5 years.
At the end of 2010, China overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest economy.
Many people believe that China’s continued economic growth will see it become the world’s largest economy by 2050.

China relative to the USA

However, China's economy is still a long way behind America's economy. In 2015, America accounted for 22.4% of global GDP whereas China accounted for 13.4% - a significant difference.

Will China overtake the USA?

Nobody knows whether or not China will be able to sustain its economic growth throughout this century.
Whilst it has seen significant progress, there are also lots of rising challenges for China that may mean it never fully rivals America for superpower status.
It seems fair to categorise China as an emerging superpower.