Future Uncertainty

Factors to Uncertainty

Climate change is uncertain due to a large number of factors and feedback mechanisms that may increase or stabilise the current impacts.

Natural factors

How oceans will respond to the upcoming changes in climate is uncertain.
Sea surface temperatures might rise, leading to increased likelihood and intensity of tropical storms.
Increased glacial melt will increase sea level rise.
Increases in atmospheric carbon will cause the ocean to become more acidic, leading to problems with coral and other organisms.

Human factors

The resources and energy available to us in the future depends on many factors.
- E.g. Population growth, economic development and technological developments that may support the challenges for resources we currently have.
Economic growth is frequently linked to carbon emissions, especially in developing nations where deforestation is occurring for land-use change e.g. mining and farming.
Emerging nations may still have high rates of fossil fuel consumption to support their secondary and tertiary industry progression.

Human factors 2

Population growth leads to many more middle-class consumers. These consumers want all the resources that are expected in affluent middle class communities.
This can be seen in the shift to a more meat and fat-based diet in China.
Energy consumption is likely to increase with population and economic growth. There is uncertainty over how much of this will be covered by renewable energy.

Feedback mechanisms are where something that happens in a system has a knock-on effect on the rest of the system. For example, if Arctic ice melts, sea temperature and levels rise. The sea being warmer feeds back and makes more Arctic ice melt.

Peat

Peat is a soil formed from vegetation that is partly decayed.
As a result of the low decomposition, this soil contains high amounts of carbon.
If peat dries out, the water table drops. But the decomposition rates also increase, leading to more carbon emission release.
The peatlands also emit methane, which contributes to the greenhouse gases.

Saddleworth Moor wildfire

Dry weather in June 2018 in Manchester, UK led to wildfires on Saddleworth Moor.
The wildfires were hard to contain because the dry bushes were on peat, which is extremely flammable.
The wildfire resulted in 40 homes being evacuated.

Permafrost

As permafrost thaws, CO₂ and methane are released.
This contributes to greenhouse gases and enhances the greenhouse effect, which results in further increases in temperature.
Increasing temperature leads to further melting of the permafrost and emission of more greenhouse gases.

Tipping Points

Tipping points in any system are points where there will be a drastic, sometimes irreversible change.

Forest dieback

If drought in rainforests causes enough trees to die, then a tipping point can be reached.
At the tipping point, there is so much dead vegetation that any rainfall doesn't infiltrate. As there is no evapotranspiration (water evaporating off plants) happening, overall rainfall is also reduced.
This leads to further vegetation dying because of the further reduced rainfall.

The thermohaline circulation

Increased melting of northern glaciers and ice caps would result in large amounts of non-salty, less dense water entering into the oceans.
This would disturb the conveyor belt of hot water moving from the tropics to the cold water from the poles.
The change in the thermohaline system may result in cooling of temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.

1Tectonic Processes & Hazards

1.1Tectonic Processes & Hazards

1.1.1Tectonic Plates

1.1.2Distribution of Tectonic Hazards

1.1.3Theoretical Frameworks

1.1.4Earthquakes

1.1.5Earthquake Hazards

1.1.6Volcanoes

1.1.7Tsunamis

1.1.8End of Topic Test - Tectonic Processes

1.1.9Exam-Style Question - Earthquakes

1.2Natural Disasters

1.2.1Introduction to Natural Disasters

1.2.2Impacts of Hazards

1.2.3Comparing Hazards

1.2.4Development & Governance

1.3Natural Disaster Case Studies

1.3.1Tohoku Earthquake & Tsunami

1.3.2Gorkha Earthquake

1.3.3Mount Merapi Eruption

1.4Trends & Patterns

1.4.1Disaster Trends

1.4.2Prediction

1.5Disaster Modification

1.5.1Hazard Management

1.5.2Modifications

1.5.3End of Topic Test - Natural Disasters

1.5.4Exam-Style Question - Disaster Modification

2Option 2A: Glaciated Landscapes & Change

2.1Glaciated Landscapes Over Time

2.1.1Timeline of Glacial Change

2.1.2Natural Causes

2.1.3Ice Distributions

2.2Periglacial Landscapes

2.2.1Periglacial Processes

2.2.2Periglacial Landforms

2.3Glacial Processes

2.3.1Mass Balance

2.3.2Glacial Movement

2.4Glacial Landforms

2.4.1Landscapes

2.4.2Erosional Landforms

2.4.3Erosional Landforms 2

2.4.4Erosional Landforms 3

2.4.5Depositional Landforms

2.4.6Fluvioglaciation

2.5The Future of Glaciated Landscapes

2.5.1The Value of Glaciated Landscapes

2.5.2The Value of Glaciated Landscapes 2

2.5.3Threats to Glaciated Landscapes

2.5.4Managing the Threats to Glaciated Landscapes

3Option 2B: Coastal Landscapes & Change

3.1Coastal Landscapes

3.1.1The Wider Coastal Landscape

3.1.2Geological Structure

3.1.3Lithology & Vegetation

3.2Coastal Erosion & Deposition

3.2.1Shaping Coastlines

3.2.2Coastal Formations

3.2.3Sediment Transportation

3.2.4Subaerial Processes

3.3Coastal Risks

3.3.1Sea Level Change

3.3.2Coastal Retreat

3.3.3Coastal Flooding

3.4Managing Coastlines

3.4.1Consequences of Coastal Recession

3.4.2Engineering Management Approaches

3.4.3Governance Approaches

4Globalisation

4.1Globalisation

4.1.1Intro to Globalisation

4.1.2Development of Globalisation

4.1.3Economic Policy & Globalisation

4.1.4Government Policy & Globalisation

4.1.5International Organisations & Globalisation

4.1.6Measuring Globalisation

4.1.7TNCs & Globalisation

4.1.8TNCs - Aramco & Anglo-Iranian Oil

4.2Negatives of Globalisation

4.2.1'Switched Off' Places

4.3Global Shift

4.3.1Global Shift for Developing Nations

4.3.2Global Shift for Developing Nations 2

4.3.3Global Shift for Developed Nations

4.3.4End of Topic Test - Globalisation

4.4Migration

4.4.1Megacities

4.4.2International Migration

4.4.3Country Interdependence

4.5Culture

4.5.1Global Culture

4.5.2Cultural Erosion

4.6Measuring Development

4.6.1Measuring Development

4.7Responses to Globalisation

4.7.1Tensions Caused by Globalisation

4.7.2Government Control of Globalisation

4.7.3Ethical Responses to Globalisation

4.7.4End of Topic Test - Migration, Culture, & Response

5Option 4A: Regenerating Places

6Option 4B: Diverse Places

6.1Population Structure

6.1.1The UK

6.1.2Population Characteristics

6.1.3Government & Change

6.2Past & Present Connections

6.2.1International Influence on Places

6.2.2Historic Influences on Places

6.2.3The Perception of Places

6.2.4Image & Identity

6.3Urban & Rural Spaces

6.3.1Perceptions of Urban Places

6.3.2Perceptions of Rural Places

6.3.3Evaluating Living Space

6.4Diversity

6.4.1UK Migrations

6.4.2Challenges

6.4.3Tensions & Conflict

6.4.4Wider Outcomes of Tensions

6.4.5Managing Tensions

6.5Urban & Rural Case Studies

6.5.1Stakeholders

6.6Case Study - Tower Hamlets

6.6.1Background

6.6.2Characteristics

6.6.3Issues

6.7Case Study - Sturton-le-Steeple

6.7.1Background

6.7.2Characteristics

6.7.3Issues

7The Water Cycle & Water Insecurity (A2 only)

7.1Hydrological Processes Global to Local

7.1.1Global Hydrological Cycle

7.1.2Drainage Basin Hydrological Cycle

7.1.3Water Budgets

7.1.4River Regimes

7.1.5Storm Hydrographs

7.2Influences on the Water Cycle

7.2.1Causes of Drought

7.2.2Impacts of Drought

7.2.3Causes of Flooding

7.2.4Impacts of Flooding

7.2.5Climate Change & The Water Cycle

7.2.6Impacts of Climate Change

7.2.7End of Topic Test - The Water Cycle

7.3Water Insecurity

7.3.1Water Stress

7.3.2Causes of Water Insecurity

7.3.3Water Insecurity Risk

7.3.4Conflict Over Water

7.4Water Supply Management

7.4.1Hard Engineering Schemes

7.4.2Sustainable Management

7.4.3Water Treaties & Framework

7.4.4End of Topic Test - Water Insecurity & Management

8The Carbon Cycle & Energy Security (A2 only)

8.1The Carbon Cycle

8.1.1Carbon Stores

8.1.2Carbon Stores 2

8.1.3Biological Carbon

8.1.4Atmospheric Carbon

8.1.5Burning Fossil Fuels

8.2Energy Consumption

8.2.1Consumption

8.2.2Access to Energy

8.2.3Energy Players

8.2.4Supply & Demand

8.2.5Pathways

8.2.6End of Topic Test - Carbon & Consumption

8.3Alternative Energy

8.3.1Unconventional Fuels

8.3.2Non-Fossil Fuels

8.3.3Non-Fossil Fuels 2

8.4Growing Demand for Resources

8.4.1Deforestation

8.4.2Water

8.4.3Climate Change

8.5The Future

8.5.1Future Uncertainty

8.5.2Adaptation Strategies

8.5.3Mitigation Strategies

9Superpowers (A2 only)

9.1Superpowers

9.1.1Introduction to Superpowers

9.1.2Superpowers - Economic Power & Size

9.1.3Superpowers - Political & Military Power

9.1.4Superpowers - Culture, Demography & Resources

9.1.5Geo-Strategic Location

9.2Hard & Soft Power

9.2.1Hard & Soft Power

9.2.2Emerging Powers - China Rivalry

9.2.3Emerging Powers - Chinese Sources of Power

9.2.4Emerging Powers - Brazil

9.2.5Emerging Powers - Russia

9.2.6Emerging Powers - India

9.2.7Theories of Development

9.2.8Power Case Studies: Chinese One Belt One Road

9.2.9Power Case Studies: Pakistan Nuclear Arms

9.2.10Power Case Studies: OPEC

9.3IGOs, TNCs & Alliances

9.3.1Superpowers & IGOs

9.3.2Superpowers & TNCs

9.3.3Superpowers & Global Action

9.3.4Superpowers & Alliances

9.3.5Superpowers & the Environment

9.4Changing Global Influence

9.4.1Recent Tensions between Powers

9.4.2China in Africa & Asia

9.4.3Tensions in the Middle East

9.4.4Economic Problems for Superpowers

9.4.5Future Pattern of Power

10Option 8A: Health & Human Rights (A2 only)

11Option 8B: Migration & Identity (A2 only)

11.1Globalisation & Migration

11.1.1Intro to Migration

11.1.2Trends in Migration

11.1.3Common Migration Patterns

11.1.4Causes of Migration

11.1.5Restrictions on Migration

11.2Consequences of Migration

11.2.1Intro to Culture

11.2.2Social & Demographic Tensions of Migration

11.2.3Political & Economic Tensions of Migration

11.3Nation States

11.3.1Intro to Nation States

11.3.2Borders

11.3.3Nationalism

11.4Responses to Global Migration

11.4.1Responses to Global Migration

11.4.2Global Organisations

11.4.3IGOs and World Trade

11.4.4Financial IGOs

11.4.5Environmental IGOs

11.5Sovereignty & Identity

11.5.1Sovereignty & Nationalism

11.5.2Complex Identities

11.5.3Challenges to National Identities

11.5.4Tensions within Nations

11.5.5Failed States

Jump to other topics