17.1.5

Evaluation of Offender Profiling

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Limitations of Offender Profiling

Offender profiling is controversial for a number of reasons, one being that its not always effective. For example the Rachel Nickell murder case where profiling was misused.

Effectiveness

Effectiveness

  • There are many biases and weaknesses in using offender profiling.
  • First, offender profiling has been found to not be very effective.
  • Holmes (1989) found that only 88 out of 192 cases where offender profiling was used resulted in arrest.
    • This is an effectiveness of only 46%.
  • Among those 88 cases, the profile was used to make the arrest in only 15 cases (17%).
Specific crimes

Specific crimes

  • Secondly, profiles can only be used for a small amount of crimes such as rape or murder.
  • Crimes like theft or robbery, where the purpose is material gain, have been difficult to develop profiles from.
  • There has been use of profiles in other crimes like arson and stalking.
Misuse and misunderstanding

Misuse and misunderstanding

  • Thirdly, the aim offender profiling has been misrepresented (Douglas et al., 1986).
  • The concept of profiling is to not identify one specific person; the aim of profiling is to identify a specific type of person.
Applicability

Applicability

  • Finally, a report done by Copson (1995) stated that only 14% of senior police officers believed that profiling aided them in solving cases.

Rachel Nickell Murder Case

The Rachel Nickell murder case is an example of profiling being misused and ineffective.

The case

The case

  • This case is an example of where offender profiling was abused.
  • In 1992 Rachel Nickell was murdered in front of her two-year-old child.
  • Paul Britton developed a profile of a person and it was broadcast on TV.
The consequences

The consequences

  • Four callers identified a man, Colin Stagg, as the offender.
  • There was no forensic evidence (DNA, fingerprints, etc.) that linked him to the crime
  • A sting was set up using an undercover policewoman.
  • She befriended Stagg in an attempt to get him to confess to the crime.
Outcome

Outcome

  • However, Stagg never confessed and denied any involvement. - He was still arrested and charged for Nickell’s murder.
  • When the case got to court, the judge acquitted the charges and criticised the police’s tactics.
  • Robert Napper, in 2008, admitted to have killed Rachel Nickell.
  • He plead guilty to manslaughter.
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