Climate Change Predictions

Geography: KS3, topic 12.1.7

Climate Change Projections

Computer models use data to forecast what the world will look like in the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses projection graphs to show predicted temperature and sea-level changes in 4 scenarios:

Temperature projection graphs

In scenario 1, greenhouse gas levels peak and then fall. For scenario 1 to happen, governments would have to act to reduce carbon emissions.
In scenarios 2 and 3, greenhouse gas levels keep rising for longer before eventually flattening out. This would be consistent with some action.
In scenario 4, emissions continue to increase. This would be similar to a situation where no countries or governments managed to co-ordinate any action together.

Sea level rise projection graphs

Sea levels would rise materially in Scenario 4 and temperatures could be over 4°C higher than they were in 1900.

Test yourself on Climate Change Predictions

The IPCC use projection graphs to show predicted temperature and sea level changes in 4 scenarios. What does IPCC stand for?
IPCC Scenarios
What type of graph does the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change use to show predicted temperature and sea level changes for the 21st century?
How much hotter will the world be in 2100 under scenario 4?

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