2.3.12

The Short-Run Phillips Curve

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The Phillips Curve

The Phillips Curve suggests that there is a tradeoff for policymakers between unemployment and inflation (i.e. both can't be low), based on observations made by economist A.W. Phillips in the 1950s.

Short-run Phillips curve (SRPC)

Short-run Phillips curve (SRPC)

  • The theory is that if unemployment went down, there would be an increase in inflationary pressure. And if unemployment went up, inflationary pressure would fall.
  • If unemployment is high, there is lots of competition for vacancies and jobs. Firms can keep wages low and there is low cost-push inflationary pressure.
  • If unemployment is low, the labor market is 'tight'. Firms need to offer much higher wages to get workers to come for them and existing workers have more power.
Policy implications

Policy implications

  • The SRPC has policy implications, arguing that a government can aim for low unemployment or low inflation, but not both.
Stagflation

Stagflation

  • This is an increase in both unemployment and inflation.
  • A shift in the Phillips curve is caused by supply shocks and changes in inflationary expectations.
  • Over long periods, when aggregate supply shifts, the downward-sloping Phillips curve can shift so that unemployment and inflation are both higher.
Examples of stagflation

Examples of stagflation

  • The U.S. economy experienced the pattern of higher unemployment and inflation in the deep recession from 1973 to 1975, and again in back-to-back recessions from 1980 to 1982.
  • Economists have concluded that two factors cause the Phillips curve to shift. The first is supply shocks, like the mid-1970s oil crisis. The second is changes in people’s expectations about inflation. In other words, there may be a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment when people expect no inflation, but when they realize inflation is occurring, the tradeoff disappears.
When does the SRPC hold?

When does the SRPC hold?

  • We should interpret a downward-sloping Phillips curve as valid for short-run periods of several years, but over longer periods, when aggregate supply shifts, the downward-sloping Phillips curve can shift so that unemployment and inflation are both higher (as in the 1970s and early 1980s) or both lower (as in the early 1990s or first decade of the 2000s).
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1

Microeconomics

1.1

Competitive Markets: Demand & Suply

1.1.1Markets & Demand1.1.2Diminishing Marginal Returns1.1.3Supply1.1.4Market Equilibrium1.1.5Price Mechanism1.1.6Consumer & Producer Surplus1.1.7IB Multiple Choice - Demand1.1.8IB Multiple Choice - Supply
1.2

Elasticity

1.2.1Elasticities of Demand1.2.2Factors Affecting Price Elasticity of Demand1.2.3Elasticity of Supply1.2.4Price Elasticity of Supply1.2.5IB Multiple Choice - Price Elasticity of Demand1.2.6IB Multiple Choice - Price Elasticity of Supply1.2.7IB Multiple Choice - Other Elasticities
1.3

Government Intervention

1.3.1Indirect Taxes & Subsidies1.3.2Application Question - Taxing Prices or Quantities1.3.3Subsidies & Price Controls1.3.4Deadweight Loss & Government Intervention1.3.5Elasticity & Tax Incidence1.3.6IB Multiple Choice - Government Intervention
1.4

Market Failure

1.4.1Types of Market Failure1.4.2Introduction to Externalities1.4.3Negative Externalities1.4.4Policy for Negative Externalities1.4.5Positive Externalities1.4.6The Deadweight Welfare Loss of Externalities1.4.7Case Study - The Externalities of Education1.4.8Public Goods & the Free-Rider Problem1.4.9Asymmetric Information1.4.10End of Topic Test - Market Failure1.4.11Application Questions - Market Failure
1.5

HL: Theory of the Firm & Market Structures

1.5.1Theory of the Firm & Market Structures
2

Macroeconomics

2.1

The Level of Overall Economic Activity

2.1.1The Circular Flow of Income2.1.2Defining GDP2.1.3Limitations of GDP2.1.4IB Multiple Choice - Economic Indicators2.1.5Business Cycles2.1.6Output Gaps
2.2

Aggregate Demand & Aggregate Supply

2.2.1The Aggregate Demand Curve2.2.2Components of Aggregate Demand2.2.3Shape of the Aggregate Demand Curve2.2.4Shifts in Aggregate Demand2.2.5IB Multiple Choice - Aggregate Demand2.2.6Short & Long-Run Aggregate Supply2.2.7Alternative Models of LRAS2.2.8Equilibrium in the AD-AS Model2.2.9Output Gaps & the AD-AS Model
2.3

Macroeconomic Objectives

2.3.1Introduction to Unemployment2.3.2Limitations of Unemployment2.3.3Types of Unemployment2.3.4Causes & Impact of Unemployment2.3.5Defining Inflation2.3.6Measuring Inflation2.3.7Use of Index Numbers2.3.8The Consumer Price Index2.3.9Consequences of Inflation2.3.10Causes of Inflation2.3.11Inflation & Unemployment Tradeoff2.3.12The Short-Run Phillips Curve2.3.13The Long-Run Phillips Curve
2.4

Economic Growth, Poverty & Inequality

2.4.1Measuring Economic Growth2.4.2Determinants of Productivity2.4.3Economic Growth & Productivity2.4.4Absolute & Relative Poverty2.4.5Inequality2.4.6Inequality 22.4.7Lorenz Curve2.4.8Government Policy on Poverty2.4.9End of Topic Test - Poverty & Inequality2.4.10Application - Inequality & Poverty
2.5

Fiscal Policy

2.5.1Introduction to Fiscal Policy2.5.2Fiscal Policy and AD-AS Model2.5.3Fiscal Policy Lags2.5.4Automatic Stabilizers2.5.5IB Multiple Choice - Fiscal Policy
2.6

Monetary Policy

2.6.1Objectives of Monetary Policy2.6.2Monetary Policy Implementation2.6.3Monetary Policy & AD-AS Model2.6.4Monetary Policy Lags & Pitfalls
2.7

Supply-Side Policies

2.7.1Supply-Side Policies2.7.2Supply-Side Policies 2
3

The Global Economy

3.1

International Trade

3.1.1Globalisation3.1.2Globalisation for LEDCs3.1.3Globalisation for MEDCs3.1.4Comparative Advantage & Trade3.1.5Protectionism3.1.6Arguments for Protectionism3.1.7Arguments Against Protectionism3.1.8End of Topic Test - Globalisation & Trade3.1.9Case Study - Globalisation & Trade
3.2

Exchange Rates

3.2.1Floating Exchange Rates3.2.2Fixed Exchange Rate3.2.3Effect of a Stronger & Weaker Dollar
3.3

The Balance of Payments

3.3.1Balance of Payments3.3.2Balance of Payments 23.3.3FDI & Reducing a BoP Deficit
3.4

Economic Integration

3.4.1Customs Unions & WTO3.4.2Merged Currency
3.5

Terms of Trade

3.5.1Absolute & Comparative Advantage3.5.2Gains from Trade3.5.3Terms of Trade3.5.4IB Multiple Choice - Comparative Advantage & Trade
3.6

Economic Development

3.6.1Factors Influencing Growth & Development3.6.2International Institutions3.6.3Measures of Development3.6.4Barriers to Development3.6.5Case Study - The Bottom Billion3.6.6End of Topic Test - Emerging & Developing
3.7

The Role of Domestic & International Factors

3.7.1Interventionist Strategies3.7.2Development Strategies3.7.3Development Promotion Policies3.7.4End of Topic Test - Growth & Global Development3.7.5Application Questions -Growth & Global Development
3.8

The Role of International Trade

3.8.1International Institutions3.8.2End of Topic Test - Globalisation & Trade
3.9

The Role of Foreign Aid

3.9.1Aid3.9.2Limitations of Aid3.9.3Support for Aid3.9.4Application Questions - Developing Countries

Practice questions on The Short-Run Phillips Curve

Can you answer these? Test yourself with free interactive practice on Seneca — used by over 10 million students.

  1. 1
    The short-run Phillips curve implies that which of these government aims are NOT possible?Multiple choice
  2. 2
    What do supply shocks and changes in inflationary expectations cause?Multiple choice
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Inflation & Unemployment Tradeoff

The Long-Run Phillips Curve