Phillips Curve

The Phillips Curve

The Phillips Curve suggests that there is a tradeoff for policymakers between unemployment and inflation (i.e. both can't be low), based on observations made by economist Bill Phillips in the 1950s.

Short-run Phillips curve (SRPC)

The theory is that if unemployment went down, there would be an increase in inflationary pressure. And if unemployment went up, inflationary pressure would fall.
If unemployment is high, there is lots of competition for vacancies and jobs. Firms can keep wages low and there is low cost-push inflationary pressure.
If unemployment is low, the labour market is 'tight'. Firms need to offer much higher wages to get workers to come for them and existing workers have more power.

Policy implications

The SRPC has policy implications, arguing that a government can aim for low unemployment or low inflation, but not both.

Stagflation

This is an increase in both unemployment and inflation.
A shift in the Phillips curve is caused by supply shocks and changes in inflationary expectations.
Over long periods, when aggregate supply shifts, the downward-sloping Phillips curve can shift so that unemployment and inflation are both higher.

Long-Run Phillips Curve (LRPC)

After a period of stagflation in the 1970s, Monetarists, such as Milton Friedman, argued that the trade-off proposed by Phillips was only temporary, leading to the concept of the LRPC being introduced.

LRPC theory

The argument is that, in the long run, any attempts to reduce unemployment below its natural rate will cause rising inflation.
If aggregate demand rises, more people have jobs, and firms hire more people. Workers receive higher nominal wages but they confuse the nominal wage increase for a real wage increase. This is known as the money illusion.

LRPC theory cont.

They expected inflation to be 2%, but inflation actually was higher because firms passed on the extra costs to consumers.
Real wages are lower and inflation expectations have risen - workers will ask for a bigger pay increase and the process repeats.

LRPC on a diagram

The LRPC is vertical on a diagram.
This suggests that inflation will increase (or decrease) if the rate of unemployment is held below (or above) the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) - also known as the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) - and that there is no long-run trade-off.

Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU)

The NAIRU is the rate of unemployment at which there is neither downward nor upward pressure on inflation - it would be shown by the LRPC on a diagram.

Shifts in the Phillips curve

Although the SRPC represents a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, and the LRPC represents the NAIRU, it is possible for these to move over time.
For example, a trustworthy central bank declaring that it is now targeting inflation at 2% may help to 'anchor' expectations around this level and so reduce the rate of inflation at every possible level of unemployment (shifting the SRPC down).
Reductions in trade unions may reduce the NAIRU because wage pressures may reduce even at low levels of unemployment. This would shift the LRPC to the left.

1Introduction to Markets

2Market Failure

2.1Market Failure

2.1.1Types of Market Failure

2.1.2Externalities

2.1.3The Deadweight Welfare Loss of Externalities

2.1.4A-A* (AO3/4) - The Externalities of Education

2.1.5Public Goods

2.1.6Information Gaps

2.1.7End of Topic Test - Market Failure

2.1.8Application Questions - Market Failure

2.2Government Intervention

2.2.1Government Intervention in Markets

2.2.2Subsidies & Price Controls

2.2.3Pollution Permits & Regulation

2.2.4A-A* (AO3/4) - European Emissions Trading

2.2.5State Provision & Information Provision

2.2.6Government Failure

2.2.7End of Topic Test - Government Intervention

2.2.8A-A* (AO3/4) - Government Intervention

3The UK Macroeconomy

3.1Measures of Economic Performance

3.1.1Measuring Economic Growth

3.1.2National Income Data

3.1.3Inflation

3.1.4Causes of Inflation

3.1.5Consequences of Inflation

3.1.6Employment & Unemployment

3.1.7Causes & Impact of Unemployment

3.1.8A-A* (AO3/4) - Hysteresis

3.1.9Balance of Payments

3.1.10Current Account Deficit & Imbalances

3.1.11End of Topic Test - Economic Performance

3.1.12Application Questions Macroeconomy

3.2Aggregate Demand

3.2.1Aggregate Demand

3.2.2Consumption

3.2.3Investment

3.2.4Government Expenditure

3.2.5Net Trade

3.2.6End of Topic Test - Aggregated Demand

3.2.7Application Questions - AD

3.3Aggregate Supply

3.3.1Aggregate Supply

3.3.2End of Topic Test - Aggregated Supply

3.3.3A-A* (AO3/4) -Aggregate Supply

3.4National Income

3.4.1National Income

3.4.2Injections & Withdrawals

3.4.3Equilibrium Level of Real National Output

3.4.4Multiplier Effect

3.4.5End of Topic Test - National Income

3.4.6Application Questions - National Income

3.5Economic Growth

3.5.1Causes of Economic Growth

3.5.2Output Gaps

3.5.3Business Cycle

3.5.4Impact of Economic Growth

3.5.5End of Topic Test - Economic Growth

3.5.6A-A* (AO3/4) - Growth

4The UK Economy - Policies

4.1Macroeconomic Objectives & Policies

4.1.1Possible Objectives

4.1.2Demand-Side Policies - Monetary

4.1.3Demand-Side Policies - Monetary 2

4.1.4A-A* (AO3/4) - The Future of Interest Rates

4.1.5Demand-Side Policies - Fiscal

4.1.6Demand-Side Policies in 2007-08

4.1.7Strengths & Weaknesses of Demand Side

4.1.8Supply-Side Policies

4.1.9Supply-Side Policies 2

4.1.10Conflicts Between Objectives

4.1.11A-A* (AO3/4) - Conflicting Incentives

4.1.12Phillips Curve

4.1.13End of Topic Topic - Policies & Objectives

4.1.14Application Questions - UK Policies

5Business Behaviour

5.1Business Growth

5.1.1Size & Types of Firms

5.1.2Business Growth

5.1.3Pros & Cons of External Expansion

5.1.4Demergers

5.1.5End of Topic Test - Business Growth

5.1.6A-A* (AO3/4) - Business Growth

5.2Business Objectives

5.2.1Business Objectives

5.2.2End of Topic Test - Business Objectives

5.2.3Application Questions - Business Objectives

5.3Revenues, Costs & Profits

5.3.1Revenue

5.3.2Costs

5.3.3Economies & Diseconomies of Scale

5.3.4Profits

5.3.5Profits 2

5.3.6End of Topic Test - Revenue, Costs & Profits

5.3.7A-A* (AO3/4) - Revenue, Costs & Profit

6Market Structures

6.1Market Structures

6.1.1Efficiency

6.1.2Perfect Competition

6.1.3Perfect Competition 2

6.1.4Monopolistic Competition

6.1.5Oligopolies

6.1.6The Prisoner's Dilemma

6.1.7Collusion in Oligopolistic Markets

6.1.8A-A* (AO3/4) - Which Factors Affect Collusion?

6.1.9Monopolies

6.1.10Price Discrimination

6.1.11Monopsony

6.1.12A-A* (AO3/4) - Models in Economics

6.1.13Contestability

6.1.14Benefits of Contestability

6.1.15End of Topic Test - Market Structures

6.1.16Application Questions - Market Structures

6.1.17A-A* (AO3/4) - Cereal Collusion

6.2Labour Market

6.2.1Demand for Labour

6.2.2Supply of Labour

6.2.3Labour Market Imperfections

6.2.4A-A* (AO3/4) - Labour Productivity & Unemployment

6.2.5A-A* (AO3/4) - What Level of Unionisation is Good?

6.2.6Wage Determination

6.2.7Elasticity of Labour Supply & Demand

6.2.8Intervention in Setting Wages

6.2.9End of Topic Test - Labour Market

6.2.10A-A* (AO3/4) - Labour Markets

6.3Government Intervention

6.3.1Reasons for Government Intervention

6.3.2Government Promotion of Competition

6.3.3Usefulness of Competition Policy & Examples

6.3.4A-A* (AO3/4) - Modern Competition Policy

6.3.5Privatisation

6.3.6Government Regulation

6.3.7A-A* (AO3/4) - Nationalisation vs Privatisation

6.3.8Government Protection of Suppliers and Employees

6.3.9Impact of Government Intervention

6.3.10End of Topic Test - Government Intervention

6.3.11Application Questions - Government Intervention

7A Global Perspective

8Finance & Inequality

8.1Poverty & Inequality

8.1.1Absolute & Relative Poverty

8.1.2Inequality

8.1.3Inequality 2

8.1.4Lorenz Curve

8.1.5Government Policy on Poverty

8.1.6End of Topic Test - Poverty & Inequality

8.1.7A-A* (AO3/4) - Inequality & Poverty

8.2Emerging & Developing Economies

8.2.1Measures of Development

8.2.2Factors Influencing Growth & Development

8.2.3Barriers to Development

8.2.4Barriers to Development 2

8.2.5A-A* (AO3/4) - The Bottom Billion

8.2.6Development Strategies

8.2.7Interventionist Strategies

8.2.8Aid

8.2.9International Institutions

8.2.10International Institutions 2

8.2.11End of Topic Test - Emerging & Developing

8.2.12Application Questions - Developing Countries

8.3The Financial Sector

8.3.1Role of Financial Markets

8.3.2Market Failure in the Financial Sector

8.3.3Role of Central Banks

8.3.4End of Topic Test - The Financial Sector

8.3.5A-A* (AO3/4) - Financial Sector

8.4Role of the State in the Macroeconomy

8.4.1Public Expenditure

8.4.2Taxation

8.4.3Public Sector Finances

8.4.4End of Topic Test - Role of the State

8.4.5Application Questions - Role of the State

9Examples of Global Policy

9.1International Policies

9.1.1Global Debt & Deficit Policies

9.1.2Poverty & Inequality Policies

9.1.3Changes in Interest Rates

9.1.4Competitiveness Policies

9.1.5End of Topic Test - International Policies

9.1.6A-A* (AO3/4) - International Policies

9.2Policy Responses to Shocks

9.2.1International Tax Policies

9.2.2Problems for Policymakers

9.2.3End of Topic Test - Policy Responses

9.2.4Application Questions - Policy Responses

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