Future Pattern of Power
Geography: Edexcel A Level, topic 9.4.5
The Pattern of Power in the Future
The future balance of power in 2030 and 2050 is uncertain. Most people believe that there are three main outcomes that are likely: continued USA dominance, a bi-polar world or a multi-polar world.
USA dominates a uni-polar world
- Many people have predicted that the USA's dominance will fade.
- It is worth remembering, however, that there have been predictions of a threat to America’s dominance before.
- In the 1980s, economists predicted that Japan would overtake America as the world’s largest economy.
- Now, however, it is third behind China.
- The 1997 Asian financial crisis contributed to a Japanese economic stagnation that stopped it rivalling the USA.
USA and China in a bi-polar world
- China's population of roughly 1.4bn people in 2018, the rise of Chinese TNCs like Tencent and Alibaba and their growing soft power in Africa (resulting from finance and infrastructure) mean that China may rival the USA's hegemony.
- If there are two superpowers in the world in 10 years' time, it seems that the USA and China are most likely to be those powers.
USA, China and Russia in a multi-polar world
- Russia may come to rival the USA and China by 2050. However, the probability of this seems smaller than the probability that China rivals the USA.
- The impact of climate change on Russia (and places like Moscow) and other nations may also influence the balance of power.
- A switch to renewable energy and a low-carbon world could mean that another country rises to become a superpower.
Test yourself on Future Pattern of Power
Which four scenarios seem most likely to emerge by 2050?