5.3.10

Conditional Probability Venn Diagrams

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Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of an event A is the probability of event A happening given that event B has already happened. Event A given event B can be written as A|B.

Conditional probability

Conditional probability

  • The general equation for conditional probability is above.
  • If events A and B are independent then P(A|B) = P(A).
  • For events that are dependent:
    • P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A)
    • or P(A and B) = P(B) × P(A|B)
Venn diagrams

Venn diagrams

  • To calculate the conditional probability P(A|B) from a Venn diagram, divide the number of elements in the set AB by the number of elements in B.
Two-way tables

Two-way tables

  • Count the number of cells that show both event A and event B occurring.
  • Divide this by the number of cells that show event B occurring.
Tree diagrams

Tree diagrams

  • The probabilities in a tree diagram are often dependent.
    • I.e. the probability of the second event depends on the result of the first event.
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1

Number

1.1

Place Value & Ordering

1.2

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1.3

Structure of Calculations

1.4

Fractions

1.5

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1.6

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1.7

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2

Algebra

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2.23

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3

Ratio

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4.16

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4.18

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4.19

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4.20

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5

Probability

6

Statistics

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